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The Rising Prevalence of Autism in Australia and Globally: A Matter of Concern

  • Writer: Gurprit Ganda
    Gurprit Ganda
  • Apr 24
  • 5 min read
The Rising Prevalence of Autism in Australia and Globally

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a lifelong neurodevelopmental condition that affects how individuals communicate, behave, and interact with the world. Over recent decades, the prevalence of autism has risen dramatically in Australia and across the globe. This sharp increase is a subject of ongoing research, debate, and concern for families, health professionals, and policymakers alike. Understanding the reasons behind these rising numbers—and what they mean for individuals and society—is crucial as we move forward.



The Numbers: How Much Has Autism Prevalence Increased?

Australia’s Rapid Rise


  • In 2022, 290,900 Australians were diagnosed as autistic, representing 1.1% of the population—a 41.8% increase from 2018, when the rate was 0.8%.


  • Prevalence is much higher in children and young people:

    • 4.3% of Australians aged 5–14 years were autistic in 2022, up from 3.2% in 2018.

    • 3.0% of those aged 15–24 years were autistic, up from 2.0% in 2018.


  • Gender differences remain:

    • 1.6% of males and 0.7% of females are autistic, but the gap is narrowing, especially among children.


  • Long-term trend:

    • In 2015, only 0.7% of Australians were autistic; in 2009, it was 0.4%—showing a steady rise over the past 15 years.


  • Newer estimates suggest the real prevalence may be even higher:

    • Autism Spectrum Australia (Aspect) estimates at least 1 in 40 Australians (about 2.5%) are autistic, based on recent studies and international comparisons.


Global Trends


  • Worldwide, the median prevalence is now about 1 in 100 children (1%).


  • The global estimate has nearly doubled in a decade:

    • In 2012, the global prevalence was 62 in 10,000 (0.62%); by 2022, it was 100 in 10,000 (1%).


  • Recent global data (2021):

    • 61.8 million people worldwide are estimated to be on the autism spectrum—about 1 in every 127 people, up from 1 in 271 in 2019.


  • Country-specific increases:

    • The United States: Prevalence rose from 1 in 5,000 in 1970 to 1 in 36 in 2020—a more than 1,000% increase.

    • United Kingdom: From 1 in 1,000 in 1990 to 1 in 100 today.

    • Australia: From 1 in 2,500 in 1995 to 1 in 100 today, a 400%+ increase.

    • Similar dramatic rises are seen in Canada, India, China, Brazil, and South Africa.

Why Are Autism Rates Increasing?

The reasons for rising autism prevalence are complex and multifaceted. Key factors include:


1. Greater Awareness and Recognition


  • Increased public and professional awareness means more children and adults are being identified and diagnosed, especially those with less obvious or “milder” traits.

  • Campaigns and education have reduced stigma, encouraging families to seek assessment and support.


2. Changes in Diagnostic Criteria


  • The definition of autism has broadened over time, especially since the introduction of the DSM-5 in 2013, which included sensory differences and removed strict language delay criteria.

  • This means more people, including those with subtler presentations, now meet the criteria for diagnosis.


3. Better Access to Services


  • Improved access to diagnostic services, especially in urban and high-income regions, has led to more cases being identified.

  • In Australia, the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) has made diagnosis more accessible and beneficial, possibly contributing to higher rates.


4. Recognition in Underdiagnosed Groups


  • Historically, autism was underdiagnosed in girls, women, and older adults. Recent years have seen a surge in diagnoses among these groups as understanding of how autism presents differently has grown.

  • Cultural and socioeconomic factors also play a role in diagnosis rates.


5. Environmental and Genetic Factors


  • While genetics play a major role in autism, some researchers are investigating environmental factors (such as parental age, prenatal exposures, and pollution). However, there is no conclusive evidence that these have driven the recent dramatic increase.

Is the Increase Real or Just Better Detection?

This is a hotly debated question. Most experts agree that the majority of the increase in prevalence is due to better detection, broader diagnostic criteria, and greater awareness. However, it is possible that a small part of the increase could reflect real changes in risk, although this is not yet proven.


“The increased prevalence rate does not necessarily indicate a rise in autism, but rather increased awareness and an enhancement in health professionals’ ability to recognise and diagnose. We have also seen a boost in diagnoses amongst previously under-recognised groups such as women and girls, along with older Australians aged 60+.”
— Jacqui Borland, CEO, Autism Spectrum Australia

Why Is This a Matter of Concern?

1. Pressure on Services and Supports


  • The rising number of autistic people is putting pressure on health, education, and disability services. Waitlists for assessment and therapy are growing, and schools need more resources to support neurodiverse students.


2. Need for Early and Accurate Diagnosis


  • Early diagnosis leads to better outcomes, but only if followed by access to appropriate supports and interventions.

  • There is concern that some children and adults still miss out, especially in rural or disadvantaged areas, or among culturally and linguistically diverse communities.


3. Social and Economic Impact


  • Autism is associated with a higher likelihood of disability: in Australia, 73% of autistic people have a profound or severe disability.

  • This has significant implications for employment, education, and social inclusion, requiring ongoing investment in support systems.


4. Equity and Inclusion


  • As prevalence rises, so does the need for inclusive communities, workplaces, and policies that respect and support autistic people.

  • There is a risk of increased stigma or misunderstanding if the reasons for rising rates are not clearly communicated.

The Way Forward: Supporting a Growing Neurodiverse Community

The rising prevalence of autism is not just a statistic—it represents hundreds of thousands of individuals and families who need understanding, support, and inclusion. As our ability to identify and support autistic people improves, so must our commitment to providing the resources, education, and acceptance they deserve.



Key Actions for the Future


  • Invest in early identification and intervention services to ensure all autistic people can access support as soon as possible.

  • Promote community awareness and acceptance to reduce stigma and foster inclusion.

  • Support research into both the causes of autism and the best ways to support autistic people across the lifespan.

  • Ensure policies and resources keep pace with rising prevalence, especially in schools, workplaces, and healthcare.

Conclusion: Rising Prevalence of Autism in Australia and The World

The increasing rate of autism prevalence in Australia and worldwide is a complex issue. While much of the rise can be explained by better detection and broader definitions, it remains a matter of concern due to its impact on individuals, families, and society. By understanding the reasons behind the numbers and responding with empathy, resources, and evidence-based policy, we can ensure that every autistic person has the opportunity to thrive.

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